Monday, March 20, 2023

Acid Rain a scam?

Apparently the whole thing wasn't real, it was a side effect of the end of slash and burn farming?
According to Krug and other researchers, the reason that many lakes went from hosting aquatic life to becoming relatively sterile was not the advent of acidic precipitation, but rather the way that people had used land in the lake watersheds over the centuries. During eras when land use involved slash-and-burn agriculture, the soil runoff was relatively alkaline, thus allowing the lakes to support life.

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Saturday, October 22, 2022

Zen Magnets hatchet job

Just an interesting video from a couple of years ago about how the Consumer Products Safety Commission and the glorious glorious Washington Post went after Zen Magnets for marketing magnets to adults, while ignoring the hundreds of people and companies on Amazon and other platforms actually marketing them to children. Amazing.

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Monday, October 10, 2022

Medicine replaced by Social Justice

The solution to such academic pressure was obvious: abolish Step One grades. Since January 2022, Step One has been graded on a pass-fail basis. The fourth-year Yale student can now go back to his diversity activism, without worrying about what a graded exam might reveal. Whether his future patients will appreciate his chosen focus is unclear.

Lovely.

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Tuesday, June 09, 2020

Imposing the DNR

Imposing the DNR - something I have experienced firsthand. I have found that doctors and nurses basically lied to me about the my loved ones' mental state and capacities and forced a course of action on him while not letting me see him, and, when I arrived and realized they were full of it, it was too late.

A bunch of bullies.

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Friday, August 04, 2017

Metamathematics

This is apparently a real thing!
Instead, metamathematics is a quest to be precise about what it is you already believe in, such that we can use ordinary mathematical reasoning about those principles to get to know interesting things about the limits of what one can hope to prove and how different choices of what to take on faith lead to different things you can prove. Or, in other words, the task is to use ordinary mathematical reasoning to build a mathematical model of ordinary mathematical reasoning itself, which we can use to study it.

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Monday, August 17, 2015

Trigger warnings are anti-science

They just makes people worse psychologically. Fascinating.
But vindictive protectiveness teaches students to think in a very different way. It prepares them poorly for professional life, which often demands intellectual engagement with people and ideas one might find uncongenial or wrong. The harm may be more immediate, too. A campus culture devoted to policing speech and punishing speakers is likely to engender patterns of thought that are surprisingly similar to those long identified by cognitive behavioral therapists as causes of depression and anxiety. The new protectiveness may be teaching students to think pathologically.

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Thursday, February 05, 2015

Just get the vaccinations, k?

Chris Christie also senses this change in the wind, which is why he is in the news as well, irresponsibly giving aid and comfort to anti-vax woo woo in the middle of a growing measles epidemic. And this only a few months after he issued draconian quarantine orders to people with no evidence of ebola in order to placate the panic-stricken “execute ebola victims” right that, with Ann Coulter, saw no point in white people treating diseases suffered by Africans and urged instead that we treat rich Jews and convert them to get their money

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Monday, October 27, 2014

Why are politicians always interfering with scientists

Those damn Republicans, always thinking they know better than the scientists. Oh wait.
Prompted by controversy over dangerous research and recent laboratory accidents, the White House announced Friday that it would temporarily halt all new funding for experiments that seek to study certain infectious agents by making them more dangerous.

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Thursday, October 09, 2014

RFKJR wants to put people who disagree with him about climate change in jail

Or so it seems from listening to him talk. He also wants to put scientists who think certain vaccines are safe in jail, despite the fact that he's a lawyer, not a scientist. So if you're a scientist and you agree with him on an issue, you're a saint and everyone who disagrees with you should be put in jail. If you're a scientist who disagrees with him on an issue, you're a kook and should be put in jail. This we call having respect for science.

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Tuesday, June 24, 2014

Why spiders are awesome

Unless you like flies and roaches, I guess.

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Tuesday, April 15, 2014

The Soul of the Embryo

I just finished reading The Soul of the Embryo by David Albert Jones, a British bioethicist. This book was published in 2004 and is "an enquiry into the status of the human embryo in the Christian tradition." The date of publication is significant because science has already changed so much in the past decade that some of the facts in the last couple chapters of the book are already out-dated. For example Jones states that only sperm can be frozen and not ova, that is no longer the case. He also contrasts Britains publicly funded abortion and healthcare system with America's private health care system. With the HHS Mandate and Obamacare, abortion coverage is increasingly funded publicly by tax-payer dollars as part of our new nationalized healthcare system. So this changes the landscape of the debate. But I digress, and these are minor details.

The scope of the book is not the most recent scientific developments, but rather it is to cover 2000 years of Christian perspective on the status of the embryo from a theological, philosophical, ethical, historical, and scientific perspective. So the history of our scientific understanding of the embryo is an important part of the puzzle, but it is only one aspect of this ambitious work.

Jones' summary is comprehensive and deals with topics that get at the heart of the human mystery:  Do we have a soul? What is the nature of the soul? Where do our souls come from? Where do they go when we die? As you can see, these are questions not necessarily answerable by science, and so much of the book delves into intricacies of historical philosophy and theology. It begins with characteristics of the pagan society and their treatment of abortion and infants. (It was not good, infanticide and infant-abandonment was widely practiced.) He also gives a brief outline of Jewish perspective in contrast to this, and then traces from Judaism the emergence of Christian attitudes toward the unborn in contrast to the pagan standard.

Jones gives philosophical and scientific understandings of embryos from non-Christian thinkers such as Hippocrates, Socrates, and Galen. Then with the advent of Christianity he goes into the earliest writings of topics such as abortion and miscarriage from the Didache to the church fathers. Contrary to what some people have told me, the earliest church always forbade abortion and treated all life as sacred. The notion of delayed ensoulment did come from the ancient Greeks and reemerged in Christian thought with the middle-ages. Some later Church fathers offered contrasting opinions or were frustratingly agnostic on the topic of the time of ensoulment (notably Augustine among them.) Thomas Aquinas favored a delayed ensoulment.

But part of the great disparity of opinion and confusion that emerged in later Christian thought it precisely because of a failure to understand the basic science of how an embryo is formed. Some thought that men alone provided the seed, sowing little homunculi into the fertile woman, who simple cooked and grew the new individual within her. Others thought it was a mixing of male and female fluids. Others favored the woman's role as dominant over the man's. Some people thought ensoulment didn't occur until "quickening" when the fetus's movements become detectable. This stems from the idea that rational thought is required to an ensouled being, and movement of limbs indicates the presence of a will and thus a soul. There was a long-held belief that baby boys were ensouled sooner than baby-girls. All of this is because of a poverty of scientific understanding.

It wasn't until the invention of the microscope that the female egg was discovered in other mammals, and eventually the human. My guess is that some of these great Christian thinkers, such as St. Thomas Aquinas, if they access to the modern medical understanding of how fertilization and embryo development takes place, might change their opinion.

As a scientist myself, I was a bit bored by historical overview of Christian views on the embryo, although I know this is important material, because I felt that so much was argued from the realm of ideas, and I do believe science must inform this discussion, but for the longest time, there was no idea of how conception took place, or how an embryo developed. The term "soul" at times equated to "life-force" and there could have been no understanding by the ancients of the molecular fabric (DNA) that underwrites and directs the destiny of each embryo to unfold into a unique being.

I was most interested in the final few chapters which did focus on the modern legislation and societal effects of abortion, IVF, artificial twinning, cloning, etc. and how these have impacted the Christian view of the embryo. These last few chapters seemed the most relevant to me, but sadly already need an update to keep up with the rapid changes in biotechnology that has already occurred in the past 10 years.

And yet, this is the most comprehensive book I have found on the topic, and so it is still worth a read by those seriously interested in the topic. Although the author is writing about the history of the Christian perspective, he does a great job of acknowledging secular views (which obviously shape Christian thought) and addressing the diversity of perspectives within modern Christian circles. For example he takes a serious look at the view of abortion as a compassionate option for women, which is a common view I encounter in others today.

Perhaps the book needs a sequel or update, but again it is one of the only books I have seen that even begins to address this issue so deeply, and it is still worthy of a read, especially for those interested in the historical Church views on abortion and the state of the souls of the unborn.

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Thursday, April 03, 2014

Tampons and the Village Voice

I'm rather unpopular when I talk about ladies. But I'm rather unpopular anyway. So I'm going ahead. 4d's blog has this post which in short notes that while people are happy to view women as sex objects, they get grossed out if you mention such as the menstrual cycle. This drives me up a wall, and while it's not really my battle to fight, I think it's a sick culture that makes women (and men) deeply uncomfortable with the natural state of their bodies.

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Friday, January 10, 2014

Anti-GMO is sometimes an anti-science religion

I'm not too familiar with Grist, but it seems, as NPR reports, that a dude at the site did an in depth study of GMO crops and concluded that there are pros and cons. He got to this conclusion by reviewing scientific literature. The response from some:
"I've got news for Johnson," Claire Robinson, from GM Watch. "Misleading the readers of an until-now respected publication like Grist doesn't make him exciting, creative or cool. It just makes him an unreliable source." Instead of being, as Grist's slogan promises, a "beacon in the smog," Robinson accused the site of "operating more like a smog machine."
Science - unreliable. Your preconceptions - reliable.

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Tuesday, November 26, 2013

Fertility Awareness Products

On first learning about NFP, some might complain that it takes work, and there is a risk of being inaccurate. Isn't there an app or some sort of wrist-band you can strap on that just tells you if you are fertile or not? Isn't there some sort of easier way? Well technology is enhancing all areas of our lives, why not fertility awareness?

A couple of interesting products I have come across, but have not bought or tested, so this is no endorsement, but I simply wanted to point them out as worthy of notice.

1) OV-Watch Fertility Predictor
Website: http://www.ovwatch.com/

To quote the vendors: "OV-Watch is a clinically proven, patented fertility predictor that helps women determine their most fertile time of month. It is a wrist-mounted, bio-sensing medical device that tracks a woman’s individual body chemistry to find the 4 crucial days before ovulation."


Yes, it is like a digital watch you wear at night while you are sleeping. It monitors the chloride ions, which surge in the days preceding ovulation due to hormonal changes. 


Pros: Can help you conceive! Seems like it is easy to use! 

Cons: Costs well over $100, and has to be refilled with monthly sensors that cost about $40 a month. Cheaper if bought in bulk.


**Warning: The makers of OV-Watch state, "OV-Watch® is not intended for contraception and should not be used by women who are monitoring their cycles for the purpose of avoiding pregnancy." ***



2) Fertility Microscopes:

Ovuscope

http://www.ovuscope.com/Home.html

And also there are various similar products on Amazon.com.


This is basically a fancy magnifying glass or mini-microscope. It is based on the premise that a woman's saliva crystallizes and forms fern-like patterns, only around the time of the month she is most fertile, with maximum "ferning" occurring when she ovulates. This is again due to the surge in chloride ions due to rising estrogen levels. Other times of the month the saliva just dries up in irregular forms with no noticeable patterns. 


If you work in a place with access to microscopes, there is no need to purchase this product. I tested the concept by spitting on a slide at the time of the month when I predicted that I was ovulating and checked to see the pattern. I got the following images I took through my iPhone. I learned the technique of holding the iPhone camera up to the eyepiece from my students who were too lazy to draw what they saw under the microscope. I have to saw, the image quality is pretty good!




3) Kindara - Fertility Tracker App for iPhone
This product I have been using for several months now, and switched from the free to the pay version about a month ago, although I haven't noticed many differences in the upgrade. (Which is a good thing for those using the free version!)

This app is both sophisticated and user-friendly. You can use up to three different indicators to track fertility (BBT, mucus, and cervical checks). You can also add in your own additional customizable data. You can input as little or as much information as you want. It predicts your fertile window and your next period start date. It is easy to use if you are new to Natural Family Planning. However, I wouldn't use this app in place of doing your research and reading the literature on NFP and taking a class with a trained instructor.


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Monday, November 25, 2013

Article Review: NFP Effectivness to Avoid Pregnancy



Article #1:
The effectiveness of a fertility awareness based method to
avoid pregnancy in relation to a couple’s sexual behaviour
during the fertile time: a prospective longitudinal study
Hum. Reprod. (2007) 22 (5): 1310-1319. doi: 10.1093/humrep/dem003

Link to free access of article:

Summary (Excerpted from abstract with some modifications)

A study was conducted in Germany with a cohort of 900 women who charted data from 17,638 menstrual cycles using a version of the sympto-thermal method to avoid pregnancy. The symptom-thermal method uses a daily temperature readings, cervical discharge, and optional cervix checks. The results showed 99.4% effectiveness when used “perfectly” (no unprotected sex during the fertile window) and showed 98.2% effectiveness when used “imperfectly” (some sexual relations took place during the fertile period.)

 Some Background Information

Warning, biology primer, please skip this if you already know basic human sexual biology: Men are, generally speaking, always fertile from the time they hit puberty, although fertility does decline with age. Women however, are infertile most of the time, with a limited window during which conception takes place. Obviously, for conception to take place, the egg (ovum) needs to be released from the ovary (ovulation), and usually this only happens once a cycle. The egg usually only lives for about 12 hours, and then dies if it is not fertilized. So technically speaking, the fertility window is a matter of hours, not days. However, sperm can live for days in the woman’s reproductive tract! Say sexual intercourse occurs two days before ovulation, the sperm is actually nourished and aided by the woman’s mucus in this time to survive and reach the egg. Thus although 48 hours passed between intercourse and ovulation, a woman may well become pregnant. In fact the most fertile time in a woman’s cycle is the few days preceding ovulation, and the chance of pregnancy rapidly declines once ovulation occurs. Thus it is not simply enough to find out when a woman ovulations, but to plan for, or avoid, pregnancy, a couple should ideally be able to forecast and predict about when ovulation will occur. However, the old-school biology textbook notion of a 28 day cycle with ovulation on day 14, is far from the reality of most women. Thus simply counting days after the commencement of a new cycle is ineffective at planning and avoiding pregnancies. (This is the old rhythm method that is rightfully discredited.) /biology primer

The symptom-thermal method (STM) is based on two primary signs of fertility in a woman: basal body temperature and mucus discharge. For most women there is a spike in temperature on the day of ovulation, and the body temperature will remain raised until the end of the cycle. There will also be an increase in mucus in the days approaching ovulation, typically with the maximum discharge associated with the day of ovulation. (Of course this is ascertained only after the mucus has decreased again.) The reality of this method is slightly more complicated, and can involve also cervical checks and other changes a woman may notice.

Please do not use this summary an effective way to learn STM! In fact one of the keys to success in this study, the authors claimed, was the excellent quality of the teachers and distributed materials that were used in training women and couples in STM. Usually women and couples are taught this method together in a series of classes with an instructor. In the case of this research the instructors were the only ones to know the identity of the participants of the study, and had to form a relationship of trust with participants in order to facilitate honesty and consistency in report back data of a very personal nature, including details of sexual intimacy. 

Key Points & Highlights

I am going to use this section to point out what was most interesting or relevant to me. I will not be summarizing the full methods of the research. If you want to dig that deep, I encourage you to refer to the original article using the above link.

First of all, when I read this article I was fairly new to NFP and what was meant by the symptom-thermal method (STM). What constitutes STM can vary by region and teacher as well. The method used in this study is nicely summed up by the following graphic:



I am finding that the main way different NFP methods differ, is in how one identifies the “fertile” time. The median length of the fertile time by the above calculations was 13 days a cycle. With all women in the study having an average cycle length between 22 and 35 days, 13 days may seem like a long time to abstinent. This is a legitimate criticism of the method. In fact, as I will demonstrate in my discussion of another paper, 13 fertile days is very conservative window. By that I mean that the probability of getting pregnant outside that window is in fact extremely low (0.4%), and some couples may choose to engage in some intelligent risk-taking by having intercourse on the “edges” of this fertile window.

In fact that is precisely what some couples in this study did.  Those couples engaging in unprotected sex during the “fertile” time had pregnancy rates of around 7.5%. One could make the point that this is a nearly 19 fold increase, however one would expect the pregnancy rate to in fact be much higher if couples are engaging in sexual intercourse when a woman is “fertile.” 7.5% is shockingly low, and the authors of the paper attribute it to the fact that couples, although failing to adhere to the advice of abstaining from unprotected sex during the fertile window, are still using their knowledge of fertility awareness to avoid the few most fertile days of a woman’s cycle. 

Interestingly, there was no significant difference in unintended pregnancies in those couples choosing to use barrier methods of contraception during the “fertile” window and those choosing abstinence. 

Conclusions and Contentions

The high success rate of avoiding unintended pregnancies is remarkable. The pregnancy rate was 0.4 (per 100 women) for those adhering to the guidelines, and 1.8 (per 100 women) overall, including those using the method imperfectly over the course of a 13 cycle (approximately one year) period.
How does this compare to other forms of birth control? Well, I did what most teenage girls across America would do (although I am no longer a teenager) and went to PlannedParenthood.org for some reliable information on birth control. When I clicked a link labeled “Effectiveness of birth control” I was sent to the following graphic:



Oh no! According to Planned Parenthood, it looks like “Fertility-Awareness Based Methods” like STM are only 75% effect at birth control! That is no good! However, when you click the link for “Fertility-Awareness Based Methods” it lists out a variety of methods, including STM, which it does state as having a less than 1% (0.4%) failure rate. So why do they lump it at the bottom with spermicide? Maybe because they include it with the “Calendar” method which is simply based on counting days, and other less efficient methods. Planned Parenthood is also quick to point out that “If you have unprotected sex on a day that you may be fertile, emergency contraception is a good option.” I’ll try to bite my tongue here, but let me just say that Planned Parenthood, in spite of its non-profit status, is a money-making institution, and so there is perhaps a vested interest in listing FAB methods at the bottom of the birth-control totem pole.

Planned Parenthood states that if you always use a condom, it will result in an average of 2 pregnancies per 100 women (proper use), and if not always used properly and consistently, will result in 18 pregnancies per 100 women. Compare those stats to the 0.4% and 1.8% of STM.
What about the pill? Again, Planned Parenthood states that 1 out of 100 women who always take the pill every day for an entire year, will become pregnant, and for women who don’t always take the pill everyday as they are supposed to, the number is 9 out of 100. Again, STM wins.

And the best part is, STM is of virtually no cost to the woman. There is an upfront investment in taking the time to learn the material, and ideally attend a few classes with a trained professional. It does not suppress a woman’s fertility, as synthetic hormones do, and has no side effects, so the very month a woman and her partner change their mind about their desires to conceive, they can use the same knowledge that helped them to avoid pregnancy, to now achieve it. There are no side-effects, and there is nothing you have to buy and keep handy in order to have sex. (Actually, it does require investing in a thermometer, but these are relatively inexpensive, less than the cost of condoms over a year! Plus you can use the thermometer when you are feeling sick and wondering if you have fever!)

What about the fact that you have a possibly long (13 day median) period of time in which you must abstain from (at least unprotected) intercourse? This is a valid point, and one I am still struggling with. It should be noted that the drop out rate from dissatisfaction was 9.2 per 100 women per 13 cycles (year). This rate is low, and not all women left for dissatisfaction with the method. Some left because of a “desire to achieve a pregnancy (8%); separation from partner (2%); medical reasons (4%) and most frequently (22%) because they wished to discontinue participating in the study, although they wished to continue to use the STM.” One critique I have is that the above percentages only add up to 36% and I would like to see a data table of the other reasons women gave for exiting the study.

I am still wondering if the 13 day median of a fertility is too conservative.  No woman is fertile for 13 days, it is impossible! The egg only lives for 12 hours, and sperm can realistically live at longest for 5 days in a woman, and this is a very small percentage that can live that long. So why the 13 day window? Because of the nature of forecasting a woman’s day of ovulation. There is some natural variability in cycle length, and outside factors and also impact a woman’s cycle, such as illness. So the large window is to minimize the risk of pregnancy due to this variability. However, my guess is, and I haven’t been tracking my own signs long enough to know, that for some women they can learn their own biomarkers well enough, and may have stable enough cycles, to reasonably reduce that window further. The researchers had to define a wide window of fertility to accommodate the diversity of cycle types, and variability for even one woman. But my feeling is that not all women need to be as conservative, and after learning the method and their own bodies, may be able to make some well-informed calculated risks, narrowing the abstinence/fertility window. I am certainly not recommending this and don’t mean to undermine the sound counseling of trained professional NFP teachers. These are simply my own conjectures.

The next paper I comment on will discuss be a large demographic study on the daily fertility rates of women to examine this question of the fertility window more deeply.

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Monday, July 08, 2013

Nanobots and chemical contraception

There is a side-effect mentioned in the novel as a negative. When these nanobots are introduced into a population the “problem” is that chemical contraception stops working. Vasectomies are healed as would other forms of surgical sterilization. Abortion also becomes much harder as the child heals faster than they can kill it. This is remarked rather off-handily in the novel and is really not part of the plot.
I need to sync my reading list with The Curt Jester's.

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Friday, May 24, 2013

A big yet

The result is an accelerating paradox. Over the last five decades, millions of lives have been remade for the better. Yet within this brighter tomorrow, we suffer unprecedented despair. In a time defined by ever more social progress and astounding innovations, we have never been more burdened by sadness or more consumed by self-harm. And this may be only the beginning. If Joiner and others are right—and a landmark collection of studies suggests they are—we’ve reached the end of one order of human history and are at the beginning of a new order entirely, one beset by a whole lot of self-inflicted bloodshed, and a whole lot more to come.
Sadly true.

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Friday, May 03, 2013

Higgs field as proof of God's existence

Just read a post advocating this. Survey says no.

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Wednesday, April 24, 2013

Science, ends, the meaning of life, etc

An excellent review of what is hopefully an excellent book.
Why does this straight-talking woman cause these men to cower? These sophisticates have no purpose in life other than pure research (the engineer uses the space technology he advances for low and hilarious purposes of personal gratification.) Their knowledge of science does not include any notion of final causes or purpose, teleology, and self-knowledge. And in this they reflect the blindness of the modern age generally.

The philosophic and theological premises of the modern age are explored by just-retired Georgetown University political theorist James V. Schall, S.J., in his latest book, The Modern Age.
Also includes references to the Big Bang Theory. A fine book review.

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Solar power saving lives during childbirth

Sweet.

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